The Safety Evaluation After The Implementation Of Routeing System

With the constant development of economy, the number of vessel traffic in China’s coastal and inland waters greatly increases, instructing water traffic is crowded day by day, water traffic safety increasingly become a serious problem. In order to make ship traffic more security and orderly, in addition to strengthen the management of ships and crew, but also to strengthen the ship traffic management, optimize the sea route, thereby ships’ routing arises at the historic moment, which provide a reliable guarantee for the security and high speed development of shipping career in our country. The implementation of ships’ routing make the safety conditions of maritime traffic improved, however, it is not accurate enough people just use the change before and after the implementation of ships’ routing to evaluate safety conditions improve effect, to its more careful evaluation, for a more detailed assessment, which will provide basis for customization and implementation in future.Time series analysis method is a kind of quantitative prediction mathematical method, which use the historical time data of forecast target, analyze through the mathematical statistics method, study its development change rule, establish corresponding mathematical model, on these grounds extrapolate forecast target, in order to predict the future development of things.This article will use time series analysis method on the safety effect evaluation field of ship’s routing, through the statistics of the historical time data, including the number of overwater accident, before the implementation of ship’s routing in the ship’s routing waters, and performs to analyze, study out its change rules, and carries on the extrapolation forecasts, obtain the number of accident and encounter under this circumstance of no ship’s routing, which number will be compared with those number under this circumstance of ship’s routing in the same amount of time and be analyzed, and evaluate safety effect of ship’s routing on the waters, so as to achieve the purpose that evaluating safety effect of ship’s routing. Innovation of this thesis is introducing time series analysis method into the safety effect evaluation field of ship’s routing, and providing a new quantitative evaluation method for maritime administrative departments to evaluate safety results.