Evaluation Of Regional Resilience To Crises Based On AHP

With the social development and technological innovation, we enter the era of crisis. Crisis elasticity is the concept to measure resistance of regional in crisis, and using indicators to evaluate the ability to respond to regional crises is an important means for crisis management. Assessing resilience and establishment of regional crisis evaluating system will help improve crisis management.This paper will assess damage of different hazards and regional affordability from perspective of ecology, engineering, and sociology by theory of AHP, resulting resilient performance in the region facing all kinds of crises. The study described the basic concepts about resilience, and then created a crisis resilience evaluation system based in Hefei district. Finally it made a summary of the evaluation results and gave some suggestions. Based on the type of hazard and assessment of disaster bearing capacity, the system identified and evaluated characteristics of crisis in different regions by investigation and analysis of regions in Hefei. The study semi-quantitatively evaluated comprehensive crisis resilience of communities from the above two aspects, which were an important basis for regional crisis management.Hefei is in a period of rapid development, and various crises are highly prone, which has worse and profound influence on the city. Rapid expansion of population and urban areas, the contradiction between people’s demand of city’s supply have made crises be great threat. Yaohai district and new municipal and culture district(NMCD) are typical as the old and new area, so this paper take these two regions as cases, and use assessment models constructed to compare their resilience, testing the usability of the evaluation system and exploring ways to enhance regional crisis resilience based on results. From this paper we could know that:1. All kinds of crises have strongly associated indicators, and taking measures against the strong indicators will work better. The measures can be taken into proactive measures and passive measures.2. Except the natural disasters, Yaohai district’s performances of the other three categories are higher. Although NMCD has a better level on some indicators, but Yaohai district as the central city has better performance in some strong indicators, which improves its disaster bearing capacity.3. NMCD has a better comprehensive resilience in crisis, and it mainly due to the uneven distribution of population and development in Hefei. With over-concentration of population and resources, the central districts would suffer stronger devastating. Combined with historical data, it could be found that the frequency of crises occurring in central area is much higher, weakening the Yaohai’s resilience performance in a sense.