Research On Temporal And Spatial Variation And Development Trend Of Inbound Tourist Market In Shandong Province

In recent years, by virtue of a strong economic base, Shandong province has established a relatively sound infrastructure. At the same time, there are abundant tourism resources, good location advantages, convenient transportation conditions in Shandong Province, the total tourism revenue of Shandong province has been increasing. Tourism industry in Shandong province has gradually become a pillar industry. Inbound tourism is an important component of the tourism industry, and it is also an important symbol to measure the level of tourism development in a country or region. Since reform and opening up, inbound tourism in Shandong Province had developed rapidly, inbound tourism industry is gradually moving towards market and industrialization. Inbound tourism industry has been in the forefront of the country of Shandong Province, but it is not balanced in the province.At present, the research on inbound tourism in China is relatively late, but great progress has been made in the research of theory and methodology, at the same time there are still some shortcomings. After consulting the relevant literature, according to the data provided by Shandong statistical yearbook, Shandong travel information network and other related statistical data, with the research methods of quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis in the quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis, such as the annual concentration index, the annual fluctuation index, the geographic concentration index, the tourist attraction radius, the Gravity Model and the Grey Model from two dimensions of time and space, the author analyzes the characteristics of the spatial and temporal evolution of inbound tourism market in Shandong Province synthetically and dynamically. Finally, the Gray Model is used to forecast the tourist volume and foreign exchange income of inbound tourism in our province in the next few years. According to the problems existing in inbound tourism of Shandong province, the author provides decision-making basis for tourism management department and tourism entrepreneurship in optimizing the structure of tourism industry, expanding the inbound tourism market, and promoting the quality of tourism service.This paper is divided into seven parts, as follows:The first part is the introduction, the background, theoretical and practical significance of this thesis are introduced. I make an overall analysis and summary of inbound tourism references both at home and abroad as well as in Shandong Province. Finally, I sort out the main content of this paper and theoretical methods, and build the research framework of the article.In the second part, on the basis of the current situation of the inbound tourism in Shandong Province, the present situation of the difference is summarized, and the influencing factors of the development of inbound tourism market are analyzed.In the third part, the fourth part and the fifth part, I made an empirical analysis. This part is the core of this paper. In the third part and the fourth part, with the help of the data of statistical yearbook of Shandong Province, by means of geographical analysis and mathematical model, the characteristics of spatial and temporal structure of inbound tourism market in Shandong province were analyzed systematically. In the fifth part, I introduces the grey forecasting model to forecast the number of inbound tourists and foreign exchange earnings of Shandong province.In the sixth part, I discuss the related countermeasures to promote the development of inbound tourism market in Shandong province from two aspects of the source and destination.The seventh part is the conclusion and deficiency of this paper.