| The outbreak of the 2008 international financial crisis dealt a great blow to the world’s major countries and economies, impacting the old international economic order under. The developed countries sought to recover from the crisis as soon as possible, while the developing countries embraced a relatively relaxed environment for development, where emerging economies started to show their potential on the world stage, playing a more and more important role.In recent years, the world’s major economies are gradually shaking off the negative effects of the crisis. The U.S., Europe, and Japan all have varied degrees of economic recovery. Most developing countries have been tapping into their own potential, actively integrating into globalization, participating broadly in the international competition, and enhancing their economic strength in the post-economic-crisis era. With a series of new technological revolution represented by robots, 3D printing, VR, new energy, and artificial intellectual sweeping the whole world, a new round of expansion and mobility of multiple elements, such as capital, technology, human resources, etc., is started in the recovery after the financial crisis; the traditional western developed countries and the emerging economies represented by “PIGS” are engaging in an unprecedented fierce competition, trying to gain the upper hand, to take the initiative and to lead the future in the new round of globalized technological innovation and industrial restructuring.China’s economic growth starts to slow down in recent years and the economic development has gradually entered the “New Normal”. The so-called “New Normal” means that China’s current economic development has stepped into a new stage of relative stability, with the three following characteristics. Firstly, economic growth turns from high speed to medium-high speed. Secondly, the economic structure is being optimized and upgraded; the customer demand of the tertiary industry is gradually becoming dominant; proportion of residents’ income is being increased; the gap between urban and rural areas is being narrowed; the development results are benefiting the general public. Thirdly, the economic growth is shifting from element-driven and investment-driven to innovation-driven. Subjected to great environment and resource pressure, China’s previous extensive growth mode, when economic growth was massively element-driven and investment-driven, has inevitably shown its various defects, such as severe pollution, high energy consumption, low productivity, and unsustainability. China’s economic growth, at the present stage, is facing such salient problems as structural mismatch of supply and demand, overcapacity, overstock, high energy consumption, and high risk. It is an inevitable choice to actively promote restructuring on the supply side and to boost the transformation and upgrading of the traditional industries so as to achieve the five tasks of “de-overcapacity, de-overstock, deleveraging, lowering costs, and overcoming shortcomings”.Since they reached “Wuhan Agreement” in February 2013, Hubei, Hunan and Jiangxi, the three provinces in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, have made substantial progress in promoting integrated regional economic development. In 2014, the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River ranked fourth after Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta with a GDP of 4.5 trillion yuan, gradually becoming China’s fourth economic growth pole.Bridging east and west, linking north and south, the three provinces play an important role in geographic position. Meanwhile, they also boast of a long agricultural history, a solid foundation, and strong traditional industries, which give them unique advantages and a practical foundation to undertake the relocation of eastern industries such as advanced equipment manufacturing, high-tech industries, modern service industries, and so on.This paper studies the industrial transformation and upgrading of Hunan, Hubei and Jiangxi, the aforementioned three provinces in the middle reaches of Yangtze River. Based on relevant studies of industrial transformation and upgrading home and abroad, this paper aims to sort out the theoretical foundation of industrial transformation with a combination of theoretical and positive analyses. It then runs statistics on the current development of the three provinces. Using the set econometric model and applying the data, this paper evaluates the driving effect of industrial transformation on the regional economic growth and attempts to shed some light upon the trends of future industrial development.The first chapter, Introduction, expounds the background and meaning of the study and reviews the relevant studies home and abroad. In reviewing studies abroad, it gives a summary of industrial transformation theory based on industry structure theory and studies on industrial transformation. In reviewing home studies, it provides different analyses on industrial transformation and upgrading at two different levels, both national and regional.Chapter Two, based on relevant theories of industrial transformation and upgrading, applying the essence of industrial transformation to China’s current economic situation, discusses the practical significance of industrial transformation at the time of the “New Normal”, and explores paths to realize industrial transformation from experiences home and abroad.Chapter Three interprets current industrial development of the three provinces. Based on the output value of the three major industries and that of specific industries, it calculates the location quotient in various industries in the three provinces in order to reveal the current levels of industrial development, industrial division and industrial distribution.Chapter Four, based on the statistics in Chapter Three, selects relatively representative traditional industries and emerging industries from all the industries in the three provinces and carries out multiple linear regression model analysis, the results of which can show the degree of industrial transformation in the three provinces. It also attempts to make a reasonable prediction on the trends of future industrial development with the help of the model.Chapter Five gives countermeasures and suggestions to the industrial transformation and upgrading of the three provinces according to the current industrial development there and the results of the model in Chapter Four. |
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