Analysis Of The Impact Of Population Age Structure On The Consumption Of Chinese Residents

Since the policy of reforming and opening,China has fully liberated the productive forces,and the economic structure has undergone profound changes,which has ensured the steady growth of the economy.Despite the economic development has made remarkable achievements,the residents' consumption rate has continued to decline and is difficult to improve.China's strict implementation of the policy of family planning has brought two major problems to society——low birth rate and aging.The growing trend has brought heavy pressure to the economy and society,and the age structure changes the structure of the consumer groups,and then it inevitably has a certain impact on the consumption of the residents.In order to study the influence,this paper combines theory with practice,from two aspects,analyzes the influence of age structure change on the consumption rate and consumption structure of the residents.Firstly,this paper summarizes the research results on age structure and consumption at home and abroad,from the differences of the different research perspective and research conclusion.Secondly,this paper explains and illustrates the related concepts,mechanisms and methods of empirical analysis.Then this paper elaborates the current situation of Chinese household consumption and the age structure of population,and discusses its current characteristics,changes in a period of time and the international comparison,and also analyzes the reasons.In the empirical analysis,firstly we study the effect of population age structure on the residents of China's consumption rate.By collecting the data of 31 provinces from2003 to 2014 and establishing a dynamic panel data model,we study the effects of child dependency ratio,elderly dependency ratio and other factors on the consumption rate of the residents.The results show that in the period we studied,both dependency ratios impact on household consumption rate are positive significantly.That means low birth rate will cause a reduction in consumption rate,and aging will promote the consumption rate of residents.Then in the study of the age structure of population and the consumption structure of Chinese residents,we study the influence of population age structure on the consumption structure of Chinese residents by the method of canonical correlation analysis based on the data from 2000 to 2014.We also study the relationship betweenthem by the method of grey relational analysis which is modified.By the method of canonical correlation analysis on the relationship between the two dependency ratios and consumption structure,we come to the conclusion that the correlation between them is very strong,and the change of two dependency ratios is the main reason for the change of consumption structure.Then we explore the relationship between six age groups and eight items of consumption by using the method of grey relational analysis.In this part of the study,the age structure of the population is subdivided into six levels,they are infants,children,young people,middle-aged,the young old,the oldest old.The results show how the relationship between each age group and each item of consumption changes over time,which reveals how the changes in the age structure adjust the consumption structure.At the end of this paper,the policy recommendations are put forward for China's current situation.Our Country may adjust policies to encourage fertility,delay retirement moderately,improve the social security system and develop the advantageous industries according to the characteristics of age structure to improve the age structure,stimulate consumption.