Study On The Demographic Dividend And Its Impact In Economic Growth In Jilin Province

The relationship between population changes and economic growth has always been a research topic of common concern to economists and demographers.The study found that population changes and economic growth interact with each other.Under certain background conditions,the population can become a favorable factor for economic development and thus promote economic growth.At the same time,in the process of economic and social progress,the birth rate and mortality rate will also be affected,thus affecting population changes.Population factors have different effects on economic and social development through various factors such as population size,growth or reduction rate,and population structure.People are the main body of economic activities,but at the same time they are involved in production and consumption,and they show different characteristics in production and consumption due to their age.The age structure of the population undergoes different changes at different times.The most direct impact of the changes is the supply of labor.At the same time,family and government consumption and savings will also be adjusted due to changes in the age structure of the expected population.These adjustments will affect capital.Changes in accumulation affect economic growth.Therefore,it is very meaningful to study the changes in the age structure of the population and its differential impact on economic growth.This article first combs the formation,development and current status of the demographic transition theory and demographic dividend theory.Secondly,the process of demographic transition in Jilin Province was analyzed.The changes in the population of Jilin Province,changes in the natural growth rate,changes in the population of all age groups,and dependency ratios were examined,and were interpreted based on the Swedish life table standard and the Lewis turning point criteria,respectively.The survival time of Jilin Province's demographic dividend has shown that Jilin Province has entered the demographic dividend period since the 1990 s.The current demographic dividend still exists.However,with the deepening of the ageing population,the Jilin Province's demographic dividend is declining.It disappears around 2030.This article draws on Roemer's analysis of the "tail effect" model built upon economic growth and regards the demographic dividend as a non-renewable resource.The introduction of demographic dividends establishes an economic growth model and uses the data from 1990-2016 Jilin Province.Empirically test whether the demographic dividend has an impact on economic growth and the degree of impact.The results show that the effect of the decline in demographic dividend on the “tail efficiency” of economic growth in Jilin Province is around 1.86 percentage points per year.Through the analysis of this paper,we can find that Jilin province is facing the current situation of low birth rate and accelerated aging,and the demographic dividend is still existing,but it is weakening.Therefore,Jilin should actively cope with the more severe population problems,strive to improve the birth rate,take active and effective measures to delay the impact of aging,and adjust the industrial structure to match the age structure of the population.We should increase education input to improve the quality of population.