The Impact Of Migration And Demographic Structure On China’s Housing Demand

Since the implementation of reform and opening up in 1978,China’s economy has developed rapidly,with the average annual growth rate of per capita GDP ranking among the highest in the world.The living standard and per capita disposable income of residents have been greatly improved,and the happiness index has been significantly improved.However,the housing problem to the people has not been completely addressed.Although various housing market regulation policies have been introduced in recent years,there are still big problems in the housing market.Many scholars have studied the problems in China’s housing market from the perspective of housing demand,the research on housing demand mainly focuses on the field of economics.Although some literatures have studied it from the perspective of demography,these studies consider only the impact of demography structure on housing demand,but ignore the impact of migration on housing demand.Therefore,this paper will examine the role of migration and population structure within in one framework,and systematically study its impact on housing demand.Based on the review of relevant literature of domestic and abroad,this paper theoretically analyzes the influencing factors of housing demand from the perspective of economics and demography.And on the basis of describing the evolution of China’s migration,demography structure and housing market;This paper makes an empirical analysis of the impact of migration and demography structure on housing demand in China.The static panel data model is performed for analysis.Panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China from 2003 to 2017 are used to build the model.Finally,according to the conclusion,policy suggestions are put forward.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows :(1)the increase of the proportion of the population over 65 will increase the demand for housing;(2)the decrease of household size will stimulate the increase of housing demand;(3)the impact of education level on housing demand is positive;(4)the proportion of urban population is significantly positively correlated with housing demand,but the influence coefficient is small.(5)in the short term,migration has not completely transformed into effective housing demand.In the long run,housing demand will increase in areas with a net inflow of people.The main policy recommendations of this paper are as follows :(1)Under the situation of population aging,we should vigorously promote the development of elderly real estate.(2)In the future,housing demand will mainly come from small and medium-sized households,so the structure of housing supply should also be changed accordingly.(3)Improve the indemnificatory housing system and accelerate the loosen of the household registration policy,for China’s urbanization process,to achieve real urbanization,we need to promote the real settlement of migrants who cannot integrate into the city.The improve of the indemnificatory housing system and the loosen of household registration policy can greatly reduce the threshold for migrants to integrate into the local area.