Research On The Non-linear Effects Of Technological Innovation On TFP

The 19 th CPC National Congress Report indicates,China's economy has transformed from a phase of rapid growth to a stage of high-quality development.We should regard supply-side structural reform as our main task and insist on the innovation driven development strategy to realize the transformation from factor input drive to TFP-driven development mode.Due to technology intensive and high value added industry characteristics,high-tech industry is the core power to achieve highquality economic development through innovation.Therefore,it is of great significance for realizing supply-side structural reform to clarify the effect of technological innovation of high-tech industry on TFP.To this end,based on the stage of industrial development,innovation capability and spatial spillover perspective,this thesis divides technological innovation into independent innovation and imitation innovation,discusses the nonlinear effect of high-tech industry technology innovation on TFP,and clarifies the complexity of the relationship between the two.In terms of theoretical analysis,firstly,from the perspective of late-start countries technology catch-up,this thesis discusses the differences of the effects of technology catch-up activities on TFP in different development stages of high-tech industries.Secondly,based on the innovation value chain theory,we examine the innovation capability from three aspects: links of creativity generation,knowledge output and achievement transformation,and define the innovation capability from two aspects of the ability needed to carry out innovative activity and innovation output.Also the thesis analyzes the relationship between innovation capability and technological innovation effect and the impact mechanism.Finally,based on the perspective of spatial spillover,this thesis discusses the spatial spillover effect of technological innovation on TFP,which is jointly determined by spatial knowledge spillover and resource contention.In terms of empirical research,by using SDM model,this thesis first empirically examines the nonlinear effects of independent innovation and imitation innovation on TFP,including direct effects,spatial spillover effects and overall effects.On this basis,through quantile regression,we empirically test the dynamic changes in the effects of technological innovation on TFP along with industrial development.Secondly,this thesis examines the relationship between innovation capability and technological innovation effect by means of threshold model,and through the analysis of regulation effect and mediation effect,clarifies the influence mechanism of innovation capability on technological innovation.The results show that:(1)At present,the independent innovation of high-tech industry has a significant inverted U-shaped effect on TFP.The imitation innovation shows a significant U-shaped effect,the technical imitation effect is not significant,and the impact of independent innovation on TFP is greater than that of imitation innovation.Further verification by quantile regression shows that with the development of hightech industry and the improvement of technology level,the driving force of technical imitation to the promotion of TFP has basically disappeared;the effect of imitative innovation has gradually changed from insignificant to positive,and the effect of independent innovation has changed from positive to insignificant.(2)The impact of technological innovation on TFP has the threshold of innovation capability.As the innovation capability gradually increases across the threshold,the positive effect of independent innovation on TFP gradually enhances,and the imitation innovation effect is turned from negative to positive.The research on the impact mechanism of innovation ability to technological innovation shows that the experience and knowledge accumulation as the implicit performance of innovation capability play a positive role in technological innovation's promotion to TFP,whereas the innovation output as the explicit performance has a positive mediating effect.(3)Technological innovation has a significant nonlinear spatial spillover effect on the high-tech industry TFP,and its spillover effect is greater than its direct effect on the interior of the region.The spatial spillover effect of independent innovation on TFP is inverted U-shaped,and that of the imitation innovation is presented as positive U-shaped.