Research On Life-Cycle Risk Management Of Logistic Park Construction Project Based On Interpretative Structural Model

In recent years,China's economy has developed rapidly,E-commerce business and supply chain process of manufacturing industry have grown vigorously,and modern logistics industry has also achieved the great-leap-forward development.As the important node of modern logistics industry,the construction management level of logistics park directly influences the overall development of logistics industry.With the rapid increase of quantity of China's logistics parks,the blind investment also causes the land wastage,unreasonable construction causes safety accidents,and improper management causes bankruptcy,etc.The construction project of logistics parks has high investment,long cycle,big social influence,high risks,etc.In the construction and operation process,there are all-round,multiangle and long-span risk pressures and those risks have the significant impacts on the logistics park's construction,management and operation efficiency.Therefore,it is of great importance to carry out the risk management of the logistics park project.The stages of the logistics park construction project are divided from the perspective of full life cycle and the risk factors at each stage are recognized.Interpretation structure model is applied to construct the hierarchical system of logistics park risk factor,and fuzzy hierarchy estimation method and cross influence matrix multiplication method are used for quantitative evaluation of risk factors.The corresponding risk response and risk supervision suggestion are provided on the basis of the analysis result of risk factors at each stage.Firstly,the logistics park's total life cycle is divided into four stages and adopted the literature method to screen the common risk factors of general construction projects at each stage.Besides,the expert interview method is applied to supplement the specific risk factors of the logistics park construction project at each stage,the PEST method is adopted to classify the two-stage risk factors of the logistics park improvement project,and the Delphi method is adopted to collect the relatively accurate risk factor relation matrix at each stage based on the classification of risk factors,to accumulate materials for modeling.Secondly,the finished risk factor matrix at each stage is used to establish the interpretation structure model and output the level and reachable matrix of risk factors at each stage.According to the level and reachable matrix at each stage,the fuzzy hierarchy estimation method and cross influence matrix multiplication method are used to carry out the numerical evaluation for risk factors at each stage and draw the factor score fluctuation figure.Based on the score and fluctuation figure,the project risk factors were classified into three categories: category I: whole-process key management;category II: each-stage key attention;category III: whole-process monitoring.Finally,a logistics park project under construction is selected and the research model is used to carry out the tailoring,layering,scoring and classification of risk factors,to put forward the targeted risk management suggestions.Then the practice process of case is reflected.1.The results indicate there are 5 key management factors in the whole process;Based on different actual conditions of project.2.There are key management factors at each stage,and the rest of risk factors are monitored and managed in the whole process.Such classification can improve the risk management accuracy and reduce unnecessary manpower,material resources and financial expenditure.